Knowledge tracing (KT) models are a crucial basis for pedagogical decision-making, namely which task to select next for a learner and when to stop teaching a particular skill. Given the high stakes of pedagogical decisions, KT models are typically required to be interpretable, in the sense that they should implement an explicit model of human learning and provide explicit estimates of learners' abilities. However, to our knowledge, no study to date has investigated whether the interpretability of KT models actually helps human teachers to make teaching decisions. We address this gap. First, we perform a simulation study to show that, indeed, decisions based on interpretable KT models achieve mastery faster compared to decisions based on a non-interpretable model. Second, we repeat the study but ask $N=12$ human teachers to make the teaching decisions based on the information provided by KT models. As expected, teachers rate interpretable KT models higher in terms of usability and trustworthiness. However, the number of tasks needed until mastery hardly differs between KT models. This suggests that the relationship between model interpretability and teacher decisions is not straightforward: teachers do not solely rely on KT models to make decisions and further research is needed to investigate how learners and teachers actually understand and use KT models.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) has been an established problem in the educational data mining field for decades, and it is commonly assumed that the underlying learning process being modeled remains static. Given the ever-changing landscape of online learning platforms (OLPs), we investigate how concept drift and changing student populations can impact student behavior within an OLP through testing model performance both within a single academic year and across multiple academic years. Four well-studied KT models were applied to five academic years of data to assess how susceptible KT models are to concept drift. Through our analysis, we find that all four families of KT models can exhibit degraded performance, Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) remains the most stable KT model when applied to newer data, while more complex, attention based models lose predictive power significantly faster.

The main focus of research on Knowledge Tracing (KT) models is on model developments with the aim of improving predictive accuracy. Most of these models make the most incorrect predictions when students choose a distractor, leading to student errors going undetected. We present an approach to add new capabilities to KT models by capturing predictive uncertainty and demonstrate that a larger predictive uncertainty aligns with model incorrect predictions. We show that uncertainty in KT models is informative and that this signal would be pedagogically useful for application in an educational learning platform that can be used in a limited resource setting where understanding student ability is necessary.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) plays a central role in assessing students' skill mastery and predicting their future performance. While deep learning-based KT models achieve superior predictive accuracy compared to traditional methods, their complexity and opacity hinder their ability to provide psychologically meaningful explanations. This disconnect between model parameters and cognitive theory poses challenges for understanding and enhancing the learning process, limiting their trustworthiness in educational applications. To address these challenges, we enhance interpretable KT models by exploring human-understandable features derived from students' interaction data. By incorporating additional features, particularly those reflecting students' learning abilities, our enhanced approach improves predictive accuracy while maintaining alignment with cognitive theory. Our contributions aim to balance predictive power with interpretability, advancing the utility of adaptive learning systems.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to predict a student's future performance based on their sequence of interactions with learning content. Many KT models rely on knowledge concepts (KCs), which represent the skills required for each item. However, some of these models are vulnerable to label leakage, in which input data inadvertently reveal the correct answer, particularly in datasets with multiple KCs per question. We propose a straightforward yet effective solution to prevent label leakage by masking ground-truth labels during input embedding construction in cases susceptible to leakage. To accomplish this, we introduce a dedicated MASK label, inspired by masked language modeling (e.g., BERT), to replace ground-truth labels. In addition, we introduce Recency Encoding, which encodes the step-wise distance between the current item and its most recent previous occurrence. This distance is important for modeling learning dynamics such as forgetting, which is a fundamental aspect of human learning, yet it is often overlooked in existing models. Recency Encoding demonstrates improved performance over traditional positional encodings on multiple KT benchmarks. We show that incorporating our embeddings into KT models like DKT, DKT+, AKT, and SAKT consistently improves prediction accuracy across multiple benchmarks. The approach is both efficient and widely applicable.

The rise of online learning has led to the development of various knowledge tracing (KT) methods. However, existing methods have overlooked the problem of increasing computational cost when utilizing large graphs and long learning sequences. To address this issue, we introduce Dual Graph Attention-based Knowledge Tracing (DGAKT), a graph neural network model designed to leverage high-order information from subgraphs representing student-exercise-KC relationships. DGAKT incorporates a subgraph-based approach to enhance computational efficiency. By processing only relevant subgraphs for each target interaction, DGAKT significantly reduces memory and computational requirements compared to full global graph models. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that DGAKT not only outperforms existing KT models but also sets a new standard in resource efficiency, addressing a critical need that has been largely overlooked by prior KT approaches.

We introduce ExRec, a general framework for personalized exercise recommendation with semantically-grounded knowledge tracing. Our method builds on the observation that existing exercise recommendation approaches simulate student performance via knowledge tracing (KT) but they often overlook two key aspects: (a) the semantic content of questions and (b) the sequential, structured progression of student learning. To address this, our ExRec presents an end-to-end pipeline, from annotating the KCs of questions and learning their semantic representations to training KT models and optimizing several reinforcement learning (RL) methods. Moreover, we improve standard Q-learning-based continuous RL methods via a tailored model-based value estimation (MVE) approach that directly leverages the components of KT model in estimating cumulative knowledge improvement. We validate the effectiveness of our ExRec using various RL methods across four real-world tasks with different educational goals in online math learning. We further show that ExRec generalizes robustly to new, unseen questions and that it produces interpretable student learning trajectories. Together, our findings highlight the promise of KT-guided RL for effective personalization in education.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is a core component of Intelligent Tutoring Systems, modeling learners' knowledge state to predict future performance and provide personalized learning support. Traditional KT models assume that learners' learning abilities remain relatively stable over short periods or change in predictable ways based on prior performance. However, in reality, learners' abilities change irregularly due to factors like cognitive fatigue, motivation, and external stress -- a task introduced, which we refer to as Real-time Learning Pattern Adjustment (RLPA). Existing KT models, when faced with RLPA, lack sufficient adaptability, because they fail to timely account for the dynamic nature of different learners' evolving learning patterns. Current strategies for enhancing adaptability rely on retraining, which leads to significant overfitting and high time overhead issues. To address this, we propose Cuff-KT, comprising a controller and a generator. The controller assigns value scores to learners, while the generator generates personalized parameters for selected learners. Cuff-KT controllably adapts to data changes fast and flexibly without fine-tuning. Experiments on five datasets from different subjects demonstrate that Cuff-KT significantly improves the performance of five KT models with different structures under intra- and inter-learner shifts, with an average relative increase in AUC of 10% and 4%, respectively, at a negligible time cost, effectively tackling RLPA task. Our code and datasets are fully available at https://github.com/zyy-2001/Cuff-KT.

In the realm of Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS), the accurate assessment of students' knowledge states through Knowledge Tracing (KT) is crucial for personalized learning. However, due to data bias, $\textit{i.e.}$, the unbalanced distribution of question groups ($\textit{e.g.}$, concepts), conventional KT models are plagued by cognitive bias, which tends to result in cognitive underload for overperformers and cognitive overload for underperformers. More seriously, this bias is amplified with the exercise recommendations by ITS. After delving into the causal relations in the KT models, we identify the main cause as the confounder effect of students' historical correct rate distribution over question groups on the student representation and prediction score. Towards this end, we propose a Disentangled Knowledge Tracing (DisKT) model, which separately models students' familiar and unfamiliar abilities based on causal effects and eliminates the impact of the confounder in student representation within the model. Additionally, to shield the contradictory psychology ($\textit{e.g.}$, guessing and mistaking) in the students' biased data, DisKT introduces a contradiction attention mechanism. Furthermore, DisKT enhances the interpretability of the model predictions by integrating a variant of Item Response Theory. Experimental results on 11 benchmarks and 3 synthesized datasets with different bias strengths demonstrate that DisKT significantly alleviates cognitive bias and outperforms 16 baselines in evaluation accuracy.

Knowledge tracing (KT) is a popular approach for modeling students' learning progress over time, which can enable more personalized and adaptive learning. However, existing KT approaches face two major limitations: (1) they rely heavily on expert-defined knowledge concepts (KCs) in questions, which is timeconsuming and prone to errors; and (2) KT methods tend to overlook the semantics of both questions and the given KCs. In this work, we address these challenges and present KCQRL, a framework for automated knowledge concept annotation and question representation learning that can improve the effectiveness of any existing KT model. First, we propose an automated KC annotation process using large language models (LLMs), which generates question solutions and then annotates KCs in each solution step of the questions. Second, we introduce a contrastive learning approach to generate semantically rich embeddings for questions and solution steps, aligning them with their associated KCs via a tailored false negative elimination approach. These embeddings can be readily integrated into existing KT models, replacing their randomly initialized embeddings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of KCQRL across 15 KT models on two large real-world Math learning datasets, where we achieve consistent performance improvements. The recent years have witnessed a surge in online learning platforms (Adedoyin & Soykan, 2023; Gros & García-Peñalvo, 2023), where students learn new knowledge concepts, which are then tested through exercises. Needless to say, personalization is crucial for effective learning: it allows that new knowledge concepts are carefully tailored to the current knowledge state of the student, which is more effective than one-size-fits-all approaches to learning (Cui & Sachan, 2023; Xu et al., 2024). However, such personalization requires that the knowledge of students is continuously assessed, which highlights the need for knowledge tracing (KT). In KT, one models the temporal dynamics of students' learning processes (Corbett & Anderson, 1994) in terms of a core set of skills, which are called knowledge concepts (KCs). KT models are typically time-series models that receive the past interactions of the learner as input (e.g., her previous exercises) in order to predict response of the learner to the next exercise. Yet, existing KT models have two main limitations that hinder their applicability in practice (see Figure 1). They require a comprehensive mapping between KCs and questions, which is typically done through manual annotations by experts. However, such KC annotation is both time-intensive and prone to errors (Clark, 2014; Bier et al., 2019). KT models overlook the semantics of both questions and KCs.